Idaho forecasters predict dry summer, low water reserves

Erin Whorton, hydrologist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service, said this photo of Brundage Mountain sums ups the weather Idaho has been experiencing in 2026. Wednesday’s Idaho Water Supply Committee meeting in Boise was defined by record-setting high temperatures and low snowpack, with no signs of things cooling down. Idaho’s hydrologists are grappling with the reality of a dry summer after an abnormally warm and nearly snowless winter, which will likely affect the area’s reservoirs and hydropower capabilities. Troy Lindquist, senior hydrologist with the National Weather Service, shared predictions of a hot and dry summer, especially in South Idaho. A transition from La Niña weather to El Niño is expected to occur as early as June. La Niña is the cold phase of weather resulting from wind flow in the Pacific Ocean. After a period of neutral weather, the NWS predicts El Niño weather, which would bring warm temperatures this summer. A hot summer only complicates Idaho’s lack of snow. Erin Whorton, hydrologist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service, has observed an acceleration in snowmelt, even at the highest measured locations in Idaho. Most years, Idaho’s snowpack is at its peak on April 5. This year, the snowpack peaked on March 17, three weeks ahead of schedule. The peak reached approximately 68% of the typical amount of snowpack, though Whorton said some measurements provided even lower numbers. “It probably is worse than what this graph depicts,” she said. Along with many other states in the western U.S., Idaho has achieved record-low snowpack throughout the state. Southwest of Boise, the Owyhee Mountains reached just 21% of their typical snowpack. In addition, the snow is melting quickly. Idaho reached record levels of snowmelt in the second half of March. Whorton explained that a thin layer of snow accompanied by record highs is predictably going to heat up more easily and melt. Do you LOVE local news? Get Local News Headlines in your inbox daily. Thanks! You'll start receiving the headlines tomorrow! “It was a really notable thing, how across the West, the snowpack began to melt,” Whorton said. The area isn’t just seeing rapid snowmelt, but early melt as well. Whorton pointed to Mores Creek, which runs through Lucky Peak and usually is dusted by snow at this time of the year. “The entire hillside behind us was essentially bare,” she said. Some years with low snowpack were able to preserve reserves with cold springs, elongating the snowpack. However, this year’s hot temperatures don’t lend to long-lasting snowpack. Idaho is now beating previous record lows set in 2015. “We are still doing a lot better than the rest of the West,” Whorton said. Brad Gillies, a hydrologist at the Northwest River Forecast Center, said that parts of the Snake River Basin are predicted to be at water levels significantly below average. The Snake River Basin encompasses the majority of Idaho as well as parts of Oregon, Washington and Canada. From April to September, Lucky Peak is expected to reach 51% of its median water supply, Horseshoe Bend is predicted to reach 75% and the Owyhee station is expected to reach 44%. Overall, Gillies concluded that Idaho should anticipate very low reservoir levels in the fall. Jon Rocha with Idaho Power said a low water year makes for a low energy production year as well. “If we don’t have as much energy coming from hydropower, obviously, we have to look at other options,” he said. Idaho Office of Emergency Management Emergency Planner Christina Lazar said her office is gearing up for a potentially rough fire season. “This was horrible news,” Lazar said. “A horrible day to hear how little water we have.” Haadiya Tariq is the Boise reporter for the Idaho Press. You can follow her on socials @HaadiyaTariq or email her at htariq@idahopress.com.