Regional Industry & News

Political players are putting their money in favor of three amendments to the state Constitution, campaign finance data shows.

Advocates for amending the state Constitution have raised far more than opponents, a Times-Dispatch analysis of state Department of Elections filings shows.

Those proposed amendments would ensure access to abortions and other reproductive healthcare, recognize same sex couples have a right to marry, and provide for automatic restoration of voting rights after people have served sentences for felonies.

“I think these are issues that liberal and Democratic-aligned interest groups care a great deal about, are happy to support, and are happy to be seen supporting. If they pass, it is an easy win for everyone involved. And of course, the mere fact that they are on the ballot may mobilize voters to vote for Democratic candidates,” said Alex Keena, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University.

But the flood of money that funded this spring’s redistricting referendum has so far dwindled to a trickle for November’s three referendum questions.

The lopsided pattern in referendum committee funding is in line with the redistricting battle, when advocates for redrawing Congressional district lines to create 10 Democratic-leaning seats instead of the current 6-to-5 split, spent $66 million to make their case, with opponents spending about $10 million.

Virginians voted 51.7% to 48.3% in favor of the redistricting, but the Virginia Supreme Court voided the election, ruling that it had been called improperly.

On the reproductive rights amendment, the committee arguing for the amendment assuring a right to abortion has raised $3 million so far through the end of August, The Times-Dispatch review found.

Four committees opposing the amendment raised a total of $254,000 through August.

On the amendment for same sex marriage, supporters raised more than $360,000. So far, no committee opposing the amendment has filed a finance report.

On the right to vote amendment, advocates supporting the measure raised nearly $459,000. Here, too, there’s been no filing from opponents.

That lack of opposition funding “shows where groups currently see value in investing. If substantial opposition funding still hasn’t appeared by October, that absence becomes meaningful: not because conservatives have changed their views, but because strategic actors may judge that their money is better spent elsewhere,” said Olusoji Akomolafe, a political scientist at Norfolk State University.

“The lack of an opposition committee doesn’t mean the issue lacks opponents. It suggests potential opponents see little strategic payoff in fighting a measure they expect to lose, especially in a purple-leaning state during a high-stakes congressional cycle,” Akomolafe said.

The Congressional races — with the possibility that flipping Virginia districts could gain Democrats control of the House of Representatives — are what’s drawing donor attention, said Stephen Farnsworth, emeritus professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington.

“It is clear that donor money is going to mid-term Congressional races, where it can make a difference for control of Congress,” he said.

But Keena wonders if donor interest in the referendum questions could reflect a deliberate tactic.

“Democrats certainly want voters to pay more attention to these initiatives because they can potentially bring new voters to the polls,” he said.

“In this way, it is a potentially effective strategy for getting folks to turn out and vote for Democrats down the ballot,” he said.

Democrats see Virginia’s 1st Congressional district, which stretches from western Chesterfield and Henrico counties to the Northern Neck and the 2nd Congressional district in Hampton Roads as races where they can defeat Republican incumbents.

So far, Rep Rob Wittman, R-1st, has raised $4.1 million and spent $1.1 million. In contrast, his Democratic challenger, Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, has raised $2.1 million and spent $1.1 million, Federal Elections Commission filings show.

In the 2nd district, Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-2nd, raised just under $6 million and spent $2.6 million. Former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria has raised $4.7 million and spent $1.1 million.

While the 5th district, which stretches from Goochland, Louisa and Powhatan counties south to the state line, tends to vote Republican, Democrat Tom Perriello has raised $2.1 million. In contrast, Rep. John McGuire, R-5th, has raised $1.8 million.

“Donors want to put their money where they think it will make a difference … but all the polls I’ve seen say the constitutional amendments are likely to pass with big majorities,” Farnsworth said.

That support will be hard to overcome, said John McGlennon, a political scientist at the College of William & Mary.

“My guess is that both sides recognize that the amendments have popular support. For Democrats, that means making sure that voters know the amendments are on the ballot and the party endorses all three. For Republicans, there is little incentive to go beyond using party faithful about the party’s position without creating a more visible contest likely to focus Democrats to become more active in the face of two to four competitive districts,” McGlennon said.

“The bottom line: the parties will not be spending a lot on media for these amendments, but will use mail and early and election day poll workers to provide sample ballots educating voters on the party position,” he said.

Early voting for the amendments, as well as for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, and some local races, begins Sept. 18.