Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is leading Republican Representative Mike Collins in Georgia's U.S. Senate race, but a new AARP survey suggests the incumbent's advantage comes with a warning sign: Collins is ahead among voters who say they are most motivated to cast ballots in the November midterm elections.
The poll, conducted July 13-16 by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP, found Ossoff ahead of Collins 52 percent to 43 percent among likely Georgia voters, with 5 percent undecided. The survey of 1,060 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
“Georgia is a battleground state and Senator Ossoff is already facing millions of dollars of Republican spending against him," an Ossoff campaign spokesperson told Newsweek via email on Friday. "The Ossoff campaign will continue to build unstoppable momentum and work to earn every vote across the state of Georgia.”
Ossoff Leads, But Age Split Favors Collins
At first glance, the result is strong for Ossoff. His lead sits outside the margin of error, he is winning independents by 20 points, and he holds a net favorable rating of plus 10, while Collins' image is nearly even. The same poll also found President Donald Trump's job approval underwater in Georgia by 16 points, while Democrats led Republicans 51 percent to 44 percent on the generic congressional ballot.
But beneath the topline, the findings suggested the race is sharply divided by age. Ossoff leads voters under 50 by 30 points, 61 percent to 31 percent. Collins leads voters 50 and older, 53 percent to 45 percent. Among voters 65 and older, Collins' advantage grows to 61 percent to 37 percent.
That matters because older voters are also far more likely to describe themselves as certain to participate. According to the poll, 88 percent of voters 50 and older rated their motivation to vote as a 10 out of 10, compared with 62 percent of voters under 50. Among voters 65 and older, the figure rose to 91 percent.
The tension for Ossoff is familiar for Democrats but still potentially consequential. His coalition, at least in this snapshot, is younger, more racially diverse and more favorable toward Democrats. Collins' coalition is older and more Republican leaning. In a midterm election, when turnout often falls most among younger voters, that split could narrow what now looks like a comfortable lead.
Warning Sign Beneath the Topline
The survey does not show Ossoff in immediate trouble. He leads overall and has a sizable advantage with independents.
Still, the age gap could give Collins a plausible path. If the electorate that actually turns out in November is older than the broader pool of likely voters, Collins could benefit from the same group that currently gives him his strongest support.
The age split is also not unique to AARP’s survey. A late-June Wick poll also found Ossoff leading statewide while running weaker among seniors, and national polling has shown voters over 50 leaning more Republican than younger voters heading into the midterms.
The question raised by the AARP poll is therefore not whether Ossoff is ahead. He is. It is whether Democratic strength among younger voters will translate into actual votes at the same rate as Republican strength among older voters.
That may be the warning signal buried in the survey. Ossoff enters the stretch toward November with a clear lead, but Collins is winning the voters who appear most eager to show up. If Democrats cannot maintain their edge among less motivated younger voters, Georgia's Senate race could become much closer than the topline suggests.
“Mike Collins is going win come November because he has the business background, bipartisan record of delivering results and maintains an innovative vision to make life more affordable, safer and better off for every Georgian, while Jon Ossoff has never had a job outside of politics, has achieved nothing and has a radical record of raising taxes on working families, exploiting foster kids, putting victims of domestic abuse at risk, and leaving our border wide open,” a Collins campaign spokesperson told Newsweek.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and Dave Siminoff.