Another tropical cyclone is developing just southeast of the Hawaiian Islands,
potentially bringing heavy rainfall to the state
midweek.
Current remnants of Tropical Depression 15-E have a 90% chance of developing back into a depression this week and a 60% chance of developing in the next 48 hours, according to current forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center.
The system is developing east-southeast of the islands, and will be named Nolo if it develops into a tropical storm or hurricane. Conditions favor development into a depression midweek as it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
While tradewinds remained moderate to breezy on Monday, the National Weather Service warns that significant uncertainty persists regarding the final track and intensity of the developing storm.
Even with formation odds increasing to 90% from 80%, forecast models display significant uncertainty regarding the system’s exact path, ranging from a near pass south of the Big Island to a track several hundred miles away. Increased rainfall could begin on the Big
Island and Maui County as early as Wednesday, with potential flood watches
under consideration. Summit wind gusts could top
70 mph on the Big Island and 60 mph on Haleakala late this week.
John Bravender, warning coordination meteorologist for National Weather Service, told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that the windward and southeast portions of Hawaii island could see 3 to 5 inches of rainfall in the latter half of Wednesday.
While the developing disturbance is a contributing factor to Wednesday’s rainfall, there is also a lot of moisture north of the state that may contribute to the heavy precipitation and flash flooding risks.
The forecast will become more certain as the disturbance develops, he said, but current weather models show Hawaii and Maui counties could see anywhere from a few inches of rain to 2 feet by the end of this week.
The state is at a greater risk if the storm system moves slowly, Bravender said.
“Having people prepare can be a challenge because we’re not confident as to how much rainfall we’ll have, but especially with how impactful Lala was across the Kau District on the Big Island, they’re more vulnerable to flash flooding from heavy rain,” he said. “Even if there’s a low chance of it happening, it’s important for people to be aware of it and prepare for it.”
There is a chance that Kauai will see an increase in showers, but the island — which is still recovering from Hurricane Lowell on Sept. 7 — should not see thunderstorms or heavy rainfall like what is possible on Hawaii island and East Maui, Bravender added. As of Monday evening, 862 Kauai Island Utility Cooperative customers remained without power, with high concentrations in Kokee, Haena and Wainiha.
The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency encouraged residents and
visitors alike to review emergency plans, prepare emergency supplies and stay informed of potential storm developments “out of an abundance of caution,” according to an Instagram post from the agency.
Hawaii County Civil Defense echoed HIEMA’s sentiment in a new release, particularly concerned of potential flooding rain and high winds beginning on
Hawaii island as early as Wednesday. The agency asks residents to “remain vigilant” and take the
time to prepare.
“The possibility of another round of heavy rainfall in areas hit hard by Hurricane Lala is a major concern,” Hawaii County Mayor Kimo Alameda said in a news release. “As this develops, we will continue to provide the public with updates as well as work closely with the weather service and our other partners to prepare for whatever this storm might send our way.”
Civil Defense spokesperson Adam Weintraub told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser the agency is regularly
meeting with the National Weather Service to discuss the forecast. Monday’s priority was spreading awareness in the community to ensure residents have good communication tools while today the agency will focus on preparation.
The county will know more about where the most impacted places will be after a meeting this morning and will deploy resources accordingly, he said. A community meeting on Wednesday night in Naalehu on Hawaii island may need to be rescheduled depending on the forecast, he added.
“We can hope it stays weak or stays away, but we need to respect the potential power of the storm and be ready for whatever it brings,” acting Civil Defense Administrator Darryl Oliveira said in the release.
Weintraub said support has been deployed to Naalehu to assist with restoring the cemetery and
reopening the access road.
Residents also should
ensure they have a safe place to retreat if they don’t feel safe at home, he said.
“If it does get bad, we’re encouraging people to make that trip before the weather gets heavy because you’d much rather be on some of those narrow, winding roads when it’s dry rather than once the rain actually starts coming,” Weintraub said. “Be alert to changing conditions and to act earlier rather than later.”
Residents also should
ensure they trim vegetation that could cause damage if knocked down by winds, clear drainage areas of debris and ensure a two-week supply of emergency food, water and medication is available for everyone in each household, including pets.
“Be ready for power
outages, which may be lengthy,” the news release said.
Meanwhile, active tropical systems elsewhere in the Eastern Pacific continue to intensify.
Located about 290 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, Hurricane Polo has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph
and is moving east-southeast at 6 mph, according to the National Hurricane
Center.
The system is rapidly intensifying and is expected to become a major hurricane by Tuesday while tracking offshore of southwestern Mexico, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in
effect.
Located about 1,450 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Tropical Storm Odalys has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is moving northwest at 8 mph.
Odalys is expected to take a sharp turn toward the east on Tuesday and could reach hurricane strength over open waters by midweek.
Neither Odalys nor Polo are expected to impact
Hawaii at this time.