CINCINNATI — With Election Day just eight days away, two local political experts gave their predictions on turnout, the big races and levies, and what issues are driving voters to the polls.
University of Cincinnati political science professor David Niven said the big issues for Ohio voters this year are the economy, data centers and their opinion of President Donald Trump.
“I would say those are the big three, and they have a lot in common,” Niven said. “It’s been an interesting dynamic in 2026, that lack of connection with what a regular Ohioan is going through.”
Every midterm is a reaction to the president; that’s why the party in power historically performs poorly in those elections, Niven said.
WATCH: Election Day predictions
“This one is particularly acute though, given the president’s job approval ratings. These are really historically low job approval ratings,” Niven said. “That has a major motivating factor. That can touch every race ... really the entirety of the ballot from top to bottom.”
Turnout is always lower in a midterm than for a presidential-year election, but competitive races in Ohio for governor and U.S. Senator could boost turnout, Niven said.
“We’re seeing a pretty significant enthusiasm gap in the polls with Democrats more excited to vote,” Niven said. “Democrats are more confident that they know who they want and what they want.”
Niven and Northern Kentucky University political science professor Shauna Reilly both predicted that more people will vote in person on Election Day this year, instead of voting early or by mail.
“It’s going to be interesting to see what turnout is, and what the lines look like early in the day, versus later in the day,” Reilly said. “We see more Republican voters first thing in the morning and more Democratic voters later in the afternoon.”
Whatever the outcome of the election, it will reveal how the nation feels collectively. The result will heavily impact the rest of Trump’s presidency, depending on who controls the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, Reilly said.
“We’re going to see what kinds of legislation will be able to pass, if they choose to give him a little bit more free rein or if he gets reined in,” Reilly said.
What are you hearing from your students?
Niven: They have a pretty clear-eyed sense of the economy, the cost of things. Ohio has been hit particularly hard by a combination of the war and Trump’s tariffs. It’s not been a particularly great time.
Housing costs are something every student thinks about. Am I going to be able to get a job and afford a place of my own? Am I going to be able to afford anything that looks like the lifestyle that my parents had? The kind of American expectation is that children will eventually outshine the parents economically, and it’s harder for them to see that right now. Things like AI loom over them. Are there jobs that would have been available to me five years ago that are going to go out of existence?
They want an economic message. It is striking how little of the campaign has been directly about that. Republicans are a little bit hamstrung because they don’t have an answer. They’re in charge, and people aren’t happy. It’s hard to offer them much of a solution when you were in charge and set in motion some of the policies that got us to this moment.
Are you seeing any apathy from students about not voting?
Niven: I don’t see apathy; I see more opportunity.
A lot of folks want to use this election as an opportunity to send a message to Trump. There are Trump supporters out there who really want to vote and reaffirm their commitment to Trump. But a larger group of folks are tired of everything Trump and really want to register that.
I don’t think it helps the Republican campaign that there are so few Republicans who have created any distance between themselves and Trump. So, it really does directly tie them to the fortunes of Trump. If he’s high, they’re high. But if he’s low, they’re stuck in the muck.
Trump has visited the region several times recently. Have those visits been helpful?
Niven: Normally in this situation … a president is very selective about where they go in a midterm … We have the opposite dynamic in 2026 where Trump is going places where he is objectively unpopular.
We have seen poll after poll in Ohio; Trump is about 20 points underwater. Which is to say every time he opens his mouth, there are more people unhappy with what he’s saying than happy. It really does put the Republican candidates in a box … it’s hard for them to communicate a message, to communicate an image that isn’t Trump-based.
That’s part one. Part two is: he says such odd things about the candidates he supports. In the first Ohio rally, he said you may hate Jon Husted, you may hate Vivek Ramaswamy, but I want you to vote for them. Well, that’s not the most ringing endorsement in the world. His endorsements have been, in many cases, lackluster.
Trump held a campaign rally at NKU on Oct. 17; what was that like?
Reilly: We had candidates not come up to see him that were in Kentucky … Now there’s lots of reasons why they may not have been there. But the distancing of candidates from President Trump: it may help them, it may hinder them.
It’s a smaller venue, and perhaps that’s why it was selected. Northern Kentucky doesn’t usually get presidential visits; they usually come to Cincinnati or Lexington or Louisville. It was a surprise to have him on campus.
I know the numbers show less than 3,000 folks showed up to attend the rally. I don’t think that’s probably what they were hoping for.
Let’s talk about the race in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District for Thomas Massie’s old seat. He lost in the primary to Republican Ed Gallrein.
Reilly: I think both the Democratic and Libertarian candidates that are running are hoping for disaffected Massie voters … Certainly a strong Libertarian candidate can split off some of the Republican vote for Gallrein, so it will be interesting to see how that turns out. Polling seems to indicate that it will still stay Republican, but when folks are motivated to participate for a variety of reasons, that may contribute to maybe a lower percentage of the vote.
Is that race still about Massie even though he’s not on the ballot?
Reilly: You certainly can’t take him out of this, right? He’s still looming. He’s filed to fundraise for 2028, so there is certainly that looming in the background. Whether or not he runs again, or whether he runs for a different office, certainly the aura of Massie continues.
What’s your prediction for the U.S. Senate race in Kentucky?
The polling seems to indicate that Andy Barr will pull it out, but Charles Booker is out there hoping for a change. His campaign saw the visit of Trump as a sign that might be a race he’s concerned about; he was here to help shore up Barr’s support. I think that’s probably reading a little too much into the tea leaves, but it is probably more competitive than it was under Mitch McConnell at any point ... I still think we’ll probably see a Republican Senate seat.
The Ohio governor’s race, what do you think will happen?
Niven: I think every race in Ohio is fundamentally shaped by Trump. Trump as a motivator for participation. Trump as a defining force in who these people are. Trump has a lot to do with Vivek Ramaswamy being the candidate. His endorsement of Ramaswamy helped to sort of steal the Republicans’ notion that they should come around Ramaswamy and push anybody else out.
I think the Democrats have an advantage in the governor’s race. They have the advantage that it’s a bad year for Republicans and Trump is unpopular. The advantage is that the other candidate is a biotech billionaire; he doesn’t necessarily connect well with the average Ohioan.
The Ramaswamy campaign ran a controversial ad with Dr. Amy Acton’s mother. Do these deeply personal attack ads work?
Reilly: They can. But they have to read the room. Sometimes the ad can actually have more of a backlash