NBCWisconsin
Goldstein: -5.0Tone: 100.0CAMEO 10
IE 11 is not supported. For an optimal experience visit our site on another browser.
Proposal backed by Trump administration would allow 401K and IRA funds to be used in riskier investments
03:34Now Playing
Crowley thanks supporters after winning Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor
01:11UP NEXT
Trump Addresses Elaborate Plane Swap Ruse to Keep Him Safe
02:58David Crowley Defeats Democratic Socialist in Wisconsin Primary
02:42'We can insist on change’: Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan wins Minnesota Democratic Senate primary
01:11Sen. Amy Klobuchar to face Lisa Demuth in Minnesota gubernatorial general election
01:50Wisconsin Democratic governor primary too close to call between Crowley, Hong
02:50Larson, Bronin speak to voters after Bronin’s win in Connecticut House race
01:49Norman, Graham speak after advancing to runoff in South Carolina Republican Senate primary
02:02Norman, Graham advance to South Carolina GOP Senate runoff
11:48Sen. Darline Graham advances to runoff in S.C. GOP Senate primary
06:35Secret Service operation to swap Trump’s planes amid Iran threat
02:35Ex-Marine freed from Russian prison after Trump discussed case with Putin
02:20Pennsylvania ‘odd couple’ Fetterman & McCormick eager to build bipartisan relationship
04:06Kornacki previews ‘topsy turvy’ Wisconsin gubernatorial race between Francesca Hong & David Crowley
18:54Official confirms Trump used elaborate ruse to fly out of Turkey amid Iran war
02:29Trump Signs Executive Order on Childhood Vaccine Schedule
04:47Trump Secretly Switched Planes in Turkey Amid Reported Threat
02:29All Eyes on Key Midterm Primaries in Wisconsin and Minnesota
02:21Trump responds to Iran’s new demands
01:12
NBC News NOW
Crowley thanks supporters after winning Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor
01:11David Crowley spoke to supporters after pulling off a win in a close Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor against Francesca Hong.Aug. 12, 2026
Proposal backed by Trump administration would allow 401K and IRA funds to be used in riskier investments
03:34Now Playing
Crowley thanks supporters after winning Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor
01:11UP NEXT
Trump Addresses Elaborate Plane Swap Ruse to Keep Him Safe
02:58David Crowley Defeats Democratic Socialist in Wisconsin Primary
02:42'We can insist on change’: Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan wins Minnesota Democratic Senate primary
01:11Sen. Amy Klobuchar to face Lisa Demuth in Minnesota gubernatorial general election
01:50
NBC News NOW
NBC News NOW
Current with Christine Romans
NBC News NOW
Play All
Open article →BBCWisconsin
Goldstein: —Tone: —
Wisconsin result dents winning streak for Democratic Party's left wing
- Published
David Crowley is projected to have won a primary election to become the Democratic candidate for Wisconsin governor, in a surprise comeback victory that dents a winning streak for the party's left wing.
Crowley, the more centrist candidate, won a narrow victory over Francesca Hong, according to a projection by the BBC's partner, CBS News.
Anti-establishment Democrats across the US had previously notched up victories that have rattled the party leadership in Washington. That trend did continue in another closely-watched Democratic contest in Minnesota.
But in Wisconsin, the governor's race in November will be contested by Crowley and Tom Tiffany, who easily won the equivalent Republican contest.
Crowley, the chief executive officer of the state's Milwaukee County, had a lead of less than half a percentage point over Hong with almost all votes in the Democratic contest counted, according to CBS.
In the early hours of Wednesday, he posted on X to say it was time to "get to work".
Crowley reiterated that his missions were "making life more affordable, strengthening our schools, creating good-paying jobs, and making sure opportunity reaches every corner of our state".
His new opponent Tiffany, meanwhile, currently serves as a US congressman and has the backing of US President Donald Trump.
Tiffany has also highlighted affordability issues, running on a platform that includes lowering taxes, supporting farmers and improving healthcare.
The state's political matchups are expected to be closely fought during November's midterm elections, which have also wider implications for the control of the US Congress.
The Hong-Crowley contest for the Democrats was just one of several closely-watched races that were held on Tuesday, and there was good news elsewhere for those on the party's left wing.
In neighbouring Minnesota, candidate Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for the upcoming US Senate race, defeating her more centrist opponent Angie Craig.
Meanwhile in Connecticut, there was a continuation of a different trend that has been witnessed in Democratic primaries across the country - with a challenger candidate unseating a long-term incumbent. Luke Bronin defeated John Larson, who has served 14 terms, to become the candidate for a House seat.
And in South Carolina, Darline Graham Nordone advanced to a run-off vote later this month in a special Republican primary for the US Senate which was held following the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham. She will face off against Democrat Annie Andrews to fill the vacant seat.
Crowley's comeback in Wisconsin was all the more unexpected to many observers, given that he briefly dropped his bid last month in order to support a rival, and at one point trailed Hong by a double-digit margin in pre-election polling.
But he enjoyed a late surge having re-entered the race with the backing of Tony Evers, the state's current governor.
Hong, a Wisconsin state assemblywoman, a single mother and a former chef, was believed by many observers to be the frontrunner as she entered election day in what proved to be a crowded Democratic primary.
She aimed to become the first democratic socialist to govern the state. However, some of her historical comments raised questions about whether she could have beaten her Republican opponent.
Hong faced particular scrutiny for remarks about police funding and the US Thanksgiving holiday - some of which she later walked back.
Prominent left-wing politicians Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who both often endorse insurgent candidates such as Hong, notably stayed out of this race.
AP News reported that Hong had conceded the race to Crowley, and that her campaign manager had said Hong was "proud of the race we ran".
Hong's defeat brings to an end a series of wins for left-wing candidates in Democratic primaries.
Some of the successful candidates been endorsed by, or affiliated with, the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) organisation.
They have gained traction with voters not just by running against Republican policies, but by challenging the Democratic status quo in Washington set by the party's current leaders.
They have also found traction by demanding the US end or curtail funding to Israel, due to its ongoing military operation in Gaza.
Last week, for example, Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic primary for Michigan's US Senate seat, beating Congresswoman Haley Stevens.
And in June, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani endorsed a trio of progressive Democrats in the regions' US House races, all of whom won their primaries.
Mamdani's picks unseated two sitting lawmakers and beating the hand-picked successor of a retiring congresswoman.
Additional reporting by Kayla Epstein and Sareen Habeshian
Follow the twists and turns of Trump's second term with North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher's weekly US Politics Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can sign up here. Those outside the UK can sign up here.
Related topics
- Published7 days ago
- Published7 days ago
Open article →NBCWisconsin
Goldstein: 3.0Tone: 50.0CAMEO 02
University of Michigan Changes to 'Pass or Fail' Grade System
00:51
Neil deGrasse Tyson on 2026 Total Eclipse's Path, Timing, More
04:25
Excitement Builds Across Europe for Rare Total Solar Eclipse
02:50
Woman Saved After 16 Hours Under Colombia Earthquake Debris
02:03
Former Marine Released From Russian Prison is Back on US Soil
00:59
Trump Addresses Elaborate Plane Swap Ruse to Keep Him Safe
02:58
Now Playing
David Crowley Defeats Democratic Socialist in Wisconsin Primary
02:42
UP NEXT
Tornadoes, Dangerous Winds and Heavy Rain Pummel Midwest
03:40
Cooper Flagg Rookie Card That Could Fetch Millions is Found
00:36
Jackie, Bald Eagle Who Rose to Fame Online, Dies After Illness
00:31
Easy AI Hacks to Help Improve Your Day-to-Day Life
04:10
Jenna and Sheinelle on Using 'Mean Mom' Face to Stop Tantrums
04:21
Jalen Brunson and His Mom Share Bond and Basketball Journey
08:20
Romeo Santos Shares New Mission After Son’s Autism Diagnosis
04:48
Food Safety Concerns in the Spotlight Amid Recall Fatigue
02:32
Inside New Findings at Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem
04:05
Trump Signs Executive Order on Childhood Vaccine Schedule
04:47
Dad Speaks Out After Heartwarming Father-Daughter Viral Moment
06:14
Powerball Nears $1 Billion After No Winners Monday
00:27
Lifeguard in Maine Survives Terrifying Close Call With Shark
00:37
David Crowley Defeats Democratic Socialist in Wisconsin Primary
02:42
Copied
Copied
Establishment-backed candidate David Crowley defeated Democratic socialist Francesca Hong in the primary race for Wisconsin governor. The Democratic ideological divide was on display in closely watched primaries across the country but Progressives still rode a winning wave in other key races. NBC’s Ryan Nobles reports for TODAY on the election results.Aug. 12, 2026
University of Michigan Changes to 'Pass or Fail' Grade System
00:51
Neil deGrasse Tyson on 2026 Total Eclipse's Path, Timing, More
04:25
Excitement Builds Across Europe for Rare Total Solar Eclipse
02:50
Woman Saved After 16 Hours Under Colombia Earthquake Debris
02:03
Former Marine Released From Russian Prison is Back on US Soil
00:59
Trump Addresses Elaborate Plane Swap Ruse to Keep Him Safe
02:58
Now Playing
David Crowley Defeats Democratic Socialist in Wisconsin Primary
02:42
UP NEXT
Tornadoes, Dangerous Winds and Heavy Rain Pummel Midwest
03:40
Cooper Flagg Rookie Card That Could Fetch Millions is Found
00:36
Jackie, Bald Eagle Who Rose to Fame Online, Dies After Illness
00:31
Easy AI Hacks to Help Improve Your Day-to-Day Life
04:10
Jenna and Sheinelle on Using 'Mean Mom' Face to Stop Tantrums
04:21
Jalen Brunson and His Mom Share Bond and Basketball Journey
08:20
Romeo Santos Shares New Mission After Son’s Autism Diagnosis
04:48
Food Safety Concerns in the Spotlight Amid Recall Fatigue
02:32
Inside New Findings at Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem
04:05
Trump Signs Executive Order on Childhood Vaccine Schedule
04:47
Dad Speaks Out After Heartwarming Father-Daughter Viral Moment
06:14
Powerball Nears $1 Billion After No Winners Monday
00:27
Lifeguard in Maine Survives Terrifying Close Call With Shark
Open article →NPRWisconsin
Goldstein: —Tone: —
David Crowley is the Milwaukee County Executive and could become the state's first Black governor. He narrowly defeated Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist who drew enthusiastic support.
Open article →NBCSouth Carolina
Goldstein: 3.0CAMEO 02
Shannon Taylor speaks on how she plans to unseat GOP Rep. Rob Wittman
03:30
Jen Kiggans previews strategy for rematch in Virginia House race against Elaine Luria
06:14
Wesley Bell defeats Cori Bush in Missouri Democratic primary rematch, NBC News projects
01:56
Divided Democrats face critical Michigan Senate primary
01:59
Democrats Face Big Test in Critical Michigan Primary
05:08
Trump asks Supreme Court to let executive order on mail-in voting proceed
03:05
NBC News NOW
Wisconsin Democratic governor primary too close to call between Crowley, Hong
02:50
Copied
Votes are still being counted in the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor, with Rep. Francesca Hong and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley separated by only a few hundred votes. NBC News’ Steve Kornacki looks at the numbers as well as races in South Carolina, Minnesota, and Connecticut.Aug. 12, 2026
Open article →NBCWisconsin
Tone: 33.3
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley has won the Democratic primary in Wisconsin’s race for governor, NBC News projects, dealing a major upset to democratic socialist Francesca Hong.
The result marks a dramatic turnaround for Crowley, who had dropped out of the race roughly a month ago after initially struggling to gain traction only to re-enter days later with outgoing Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ endorsement.
Hong, a state lawmaker from Madison, had led in the polls in the final stretch of the race, but faced growing scrutiny over her past controversial positions and general election viability. Her loss is a setback for progressives, who have found success in other high-profile primaries around the country this year against establishment-backed candidates.
Crowley will face Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, who is backed by President Donald Trump, in a general election that will be one of the marquee gubernatorial matchups this fall. Crowley took 39.8% of the Democratic primary vote to 39.4% for Hong with 98% of the expected vote tallied.
Crowley, 40, has served as Milwaukee County executive since 2020. Before that, he was a member of the state Assembly representing an urban Milwaukee district. As recently as late July, he was in the single digits in the well-regarded Marquette University Law School poll, with a large plurality of voters behind Hong, but more than a third saying they were still undecided.
His victory marks the final unexpected development of a volatile primary that had long lacked a clear front-runner.
Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who some Democrats expected would emerge as a leading centrist contender, abruptly dropped out of the race in mid-July amid campaign finance reporting issues. A few weeks later, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, a progressive who was the party’s 2022 Senate nominee, ended his bid.
In between those moves, Crowley relaunched his campaign after initially struggling to gain traction in a crowded field, part of a last-ditch push by moderate Democrats to find an alternative to Hong.
Evers, a popular governor who chose not to run for a third term, went to bat for Crowley on the campaign trail, arguing that he was the most electable candidate in the primary.
The message seemed to land with some voters. Ali Plummer of Madison told NBC News that she “voted for Crowley because I am a risk-averse person, and I really was reading a lot about who has the chances to beat Tom Tiffany in the larger election.”
But Plummer was part of a “split-vote couple” with Shawn Bass, who voted for Hong.
“I really think that she has a great platform for talking about universal healthcare, talking about universal childcare,” Bass said.
Crowley’s campaign and allied outside groups also spent $4 million on ads during the primary, according to AdImpact — well more than any of his Democratic rivals. By comparison, the Hong campaign and groups supporting her spent less than a half-million dollars on ads.
Crowley faced some of his own controversies. Shortly after he re-entered the race, NBC News reported on a years-old social media account registered to him featuring incendiary posts about women and race, along with derogatory LGBTQ references.
But the focus in the closing weeks of the primary was on Hong, who faced concerns over her ability to win in November in one of the most closely divided states in the country.
She walked back her past calls to defund and abolish the police, eliminate the U.S. Senate and cancel Thanksgiving. And while she has been fiercely critical of Israel and its leaders over the war in Gaza, she did not make the issue a central part of her campaign message, as other progressives have.
Still, Hong did not shy away from the democratic socialist label and held a rally with left-wing streamer Hasan Piker and Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., one of the more liberal members of the House. Notably, Hong did not receive endorsements from the country’s leading democratic socialist voices, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez., who have waded into other contentious Democratic primary fights.
Hong also faced very few attacks from her Democratic rivals. In the only debate of the primary late last month, none of her opponents directly criticized her. On the airwaves, a pro-Crowley outside group only started running a TV ad targeting Hong in the closing days of the race, saying her “record is a distraction we can’t afford.”
Meanwhile, a group tied to the Republican Governors Association has spent nearly $3 million on ads casting her as too liberal — an apparent effort to boost the party’s preferred general election opponent in the primary.
Candidates aside from Hong and Crowley played a significant role on Tuesday, pulling a combined 20% of the vote. They included Rodriguez and Barnes, who were each taking nearly 4% support. A Wisconsin judge had ruled that voters who returned absentee ballots could not request new ones, even if the candidates they backed were no longer in the race.
Progressive state Sen. Kelda Roys was in third place, just shy of 8%.
On the GOP side, Tiffany — who has represented the 7th Congressional District, which comprises much of the northern part of the state, since 2020 — easily won the party’s gubernatorial nomination.
In a speech to supporters, Tiffany said, “Stand with me as we protect the Wisconsin way of life, and stand with me as we move Wisconsin forward.”
Democrats have held Wisconsin’s governorship since 2019, and are hoping to flip control of at least one state legislative chamber for the first time since the 2010 election.
The winner of the Crowley-Tiffany matchup will hold power during the 2028 presidential election. Tiffany voted against certifying Joe Biden’s 2020 victories in Arizona and Pennsylvania as a member of the House.
If Crowley wins in November, he would the first Black governor in Wisconsin history.
Open article →GDELTWisconsin
Goldstein: -2.0Tone: 2.9
Crowley defeats Hong, winning tight contest in Wisconsin governor primary
(WLUK & AP) -- Several hours after the polls closed in Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley was declared the winner -- a stunning comeback after he left the race one month ago. He will now face Republican nominee U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in November.
The race was extraordinarily tight between Crowley and democratic socialist State Rep. Francesca Hong throughout Tuesday night. The victory came around 2:30 a.m. Wednesday after 28,000 absentee ballots from Milwaukee were delayed because of a human error in uploading the results.
Crowley's campaign manager, Garren Randolph, released a statement on Wednesday morning:
"David Crowley is grateful to Wisconsin voters, the volunteers who powered this campaign, and everyone who stepped forward to participate in this primary.
“To Francesca, Kelda, Joel, and every candidate who shared their vision for Wisconsin, thank you. They challenged all of us to think bigger about what our state can become.
“From day one, this campaign has been about what comes next for Wisconsin: making life more affordable, strengthening our schools, creating good-paying jobs, and making sure opportunity reaches every corner of our state.
“Now, David is focused on bringing people together, earning the support of Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and anyone who believes Wisconsin is at its best when we work together and deliver results.
“The choice in November has always been clear. We can move Wisconsin forward with leadership focused on solving problems, or we can bring the division and extremism of Tom Tiffany and Donald Trump to Wisconsin.
“David is ready to get back to work, build a broad coalition, and win in November."
Rep. Gwen Moore, D-4th District, was the lone official to address the crowd at Crowley's watch party.
"We've got to unify this thing," said Moore, prior to Crowley earning the nomination. "We've got to give some grace to people who did not prevail. Because we're all in this together. We're all in this together."
Crowley's win comes less than four weeks after he relaunched his campaign nine days after he suspended it. The relaunch came on the heels of Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez's campaign finance scandal which ultimately led her to drop out of the race.
Crowley was widely viewed as the moderate of the two Democratic frontrunners, earning the endorsement of Gov. Tony Evers.
"He has a proven record as a county executive, and I've actually had some personal talks with him," said Crowley supporter Enze Price. "I've been able to attend some of the events that he's done in Kenosha, and he's a really nice guy, special guy, and I appreciate what he's done."
Another voter said Crowley was the candidate who gave the Democrats the best chance at defeating Tiffany in November.
"We're not ready for it," said Crowley supporter Maria Kirylos. "The country isn't ready for it. They're not going to vote for it."
Milwaukee Election Commission Director Paulina Gutierrez said human error was to blame for audit logs being uploaded onto flash drives instead of ballot results.
Hong was unable to deliver the victory speech she had hoped for, instead thanking supporters for their work.
“I know we don’t have the final results right now," she said late Tuesday night. "But what I do know is that we are ready to keep fighting and I feel confident, but more importantly, I am so deeply, deeply grateful to my core."
One of Hong's supporters explained why he backed her.
“I think her positions on Act 10, on public employees bargaining power, on private employees bargaining power, ending right to work for less," said Justin Lee. "I think those are my key issues. I think that it's about time that working families in Wisconsin got more power over what the government does on their behalf.”
Recent Marquette polls had shown Hong with a strong lead in the chaotic race.
If the margin is less than one percentage point, the losing candidate can seek a recount.
The general election is Nov. 3.
Open article →GDELTWisconsin
Goldstein: 3.4Tone: 3.0
Lessons from Wisconsin’s 2018 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Tony Evers won, but the detailed results could providence guidance for the 2026 race.
On Tuesday, Wisconsin’s Democrats will choose their nominee to replace Governor Tony Evers. Primaries like this one provide a unique glimpse of divisions within a party, but they don’t happen very often. The last time Democrats held a seriously contested statewide primary was actually the 2018 selection of Tony Evers to challenge then-incumbent Republican Governor Scott Walker.1
The 2026 primary features frontrunner Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, vs. a field of candidates representing other tendencies in the Democratic party. As of this writing, four candidates remain actively campaigning while a further three have dropped out but will nonetheless remain on the ballot.
The field was even larger in 2018, when 10 candidates appeared on the ballot, only two of whom had withdrawn their campaigns ahead of Election Day. While we wait for the results of the 2026 primary, now is a good time to revisit the results from eight years ago. What lessons does that election hold for Wisconsin’s Democrats today?
A fractured electorate made Evers’ plurality look dominant
After eight years as governor, Evers is now among the best-known politicians in Wisconsin, but he was far from the obvious choice to many Democratic movers and shakers in 2018. His only previous electoral experience was running five times (losing twice) for state superintendent of public instruction. Still, in this role, he was the most prominent elected Democrat in state government, and he drew endorsements from the state’s two former Democratic senators, Russ Feingold and Herb Kohl.
Most people, 58%, voted for someone other than the winner, Evers. However, the non-Evers voters were so fractured that his 42% of the vote represented a dominant victory over any other individual candidate. No single candidate consolidated non-Evers support.
The second-place candidate, Mahlon Mitchell, had the most support from labor unions. He was endorsed by the state AFL-CIO and SEIU, along with AFSCME, the Amalgamated Transit Union and IUOE locals. In the end, he won 16% of the vote.
Kelda Roys was endorsed by many progressive organizations and celebrities, including EMILY’s List, NARAL, NOW, Bon Iver, and Sarah Silverman. She won 13%.
Nobody else cracked 10%, but four more candidates still received at least 5%, or 1 in 20 votes cast. Kathleen Vinehout, a state senator from rural western Wisconsin, won 8%. Mike McCabe, the former director of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, took 7%. Matt Flynn, an attorney from Milwaukee who had served as state Democratic Party chair in the early 1980s, ran a campaign largely distinguished by the strength of his opposition to Walker’s then-recently announced Foxconn deal. He won 6%. Paul Soglin, a fixture of Madison politics who at that point had served as mayor for 21 of the preceding 45 years, won 5%.
Rounding out the field, the two withdrawn candidates, Andy Gronik and Dana Wachs, nonetheless received about 1% each. This was still more than the last candidate, a little-known attorney from Racine named Josh Pade. His campaign remained active through Election Day, when he won 0.4%.
Evers won (almost) everywhere, while other candidates were popular in only certain kinds of places
Evers won 67 of the state’s 72 counties. Support for the other candidates often followed regional lines. Vinehout exhibited this tendency to the greatest degree. Despite finishing in a distant fourth, she won a plurality in four counties, all in her rural home region. Mitchell, while taking second place, won a plurality in just one county: Milwaukee. Here, as elsewhere in the state, his support was concentrated among Black voters and in traditional union strongholds.
None of the other candidates won a county, but their support was still often regionally defined. To show this, I’ve created a map with layers for each candidate. Click here to access the interactive version. For each reporting unit, the map plots the votes for a given candidate as a circle whose radius corresponds to the number of votes that candidate received. The map allows you to toggle on-and-off layers for each candidate. When multiple candidates are selected, only the winner of a given ward is shown. Click on any ward to see its complete election results for all candidates.
Below are two screenshots, illustrating these patterns.
In the first map, only the winner of each ward is shown. Evers’ support (red) came from nearly everywhere. Notice the small number of purple dots in the west-central part of the state. These are wards won by Vinehout. Also notice the dark blue circles emerging from southeastern Wisconsin. These are the wards in Milwaukee carried by Mitchell.
The second map shows the results when Evers’ support is removed. Remember that he won only 42% of the vote, so this map actually shows a substantial majority of the votes cast. Here many more patterns are evident.
Vinehout’s territory (purple) grows to include most of western Wisconsin, even stretching all the way into the Madison suburbs. She received scarcely any support in the eastern half of the state, with the interesting exception of Door County’s upper half.
Mitchell drew support (blue) throughout southeastern Wisconsin and the state’s more industrial centers, including Milwaukee and its mostly working-class southern suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Beloit, Wisconsin Rapids and Superior. This latter city is noteworthy. In Milwaukee, Mitchell’s support strongly correlated with race. He was, after all, the only Black candidate, and he did best in the majority-Black wards on the north side. But fewer than 2% of Superior’s residents were Black in the 2020 census. While the city overall voted for Evers, Mitchell was the second choice in every single Superior ward, a pattern that does not occur anywhere else in northwestern Wisconsin. The most plausible explanation is that his strong union support made the difference in this city, where port-related heavy industry still plays a large role in the economy.
The most liberal candidate in 2018 was Kelda Roys (green). She drew support from a different set of cities, including most of Madison, Appleton, Stevens Point, Wausau, much of Green Bay, and Milwaukee’s wealthiest neighborhoods and suburbs. In a general election, many of these cities in the Fox Valley and north-central Wisconsin are politically quite purple, but judging by the primary results, the Democrats who do live there are among the more liberal in the state.
Mike McCabe (orange), who ran an outsider, populist campaign, was particularly popular in places like La Crosse, Waupaca, Eau Claire and much of the Northwoods. He came in a strong second to Evers in rural northern communities like Minocqua, Park Falls, Ashland, Washburn and Bayfield.
Despite his long mayoral tenure, Paul Soglin (brown) finished lower than second in all but a handful of Madison wards. However, he showed surprising popularity in many surrounding communities, taking second in places like Janesville, Monroe, and Baraboo. Perhaps many of the residents in these towns were former Madisonians with memories of Soglin’s heyday.
Evers’ support was spread across most demographic groups
To better understand the sources of support for each candidate, I allocated the election results into census tracts and used ecological inference to estimate the share of major demographic groups supporting the top candidates. These are just estimates, and there is a fair degree of uncertainty around them. (An important source of this uncertainty is that the model uses statistics for the citizen voting age population in each tract, because we don’t know the demographics of the actual Democratic primary voters themselves.)
For the most part, Evers drew relatively even levels of support across these different categories. I estimate that he won 47% of the vote among those with no
Open article →