How fresh fighting in Tigray could spark wider conflict in Ethiopia
Are Ethiopians marching back to war in Tigray? - Published Fighting has erupted in Ethiopia's northern region of Tigray between regional forces and the national army. Tigray residents, who have been trying to recover from a brutal two-year war that ended in 2022, fear a return to full-scale conflict. There are reports of panic buying - and now internet and call services have been disrupted. This means people cannot get access to their money via digital apps in what has become a largely cashless society after ATMs stopped working several months ago. Why has fighting broken out now? It follows more than six months of worsening relations between the government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the party that runs Tigray. The African Union (AU) brokered a peace deal, known as the Pretoria Agreement, between the two sides, ending the war nearly four years ago - but several issues have remained unresolved that have inflamed tensions. This year, both sides have been trading blame while troops have mobilised amid pockets of fighting. This week, major clashes erupted in Tigray and quickly spread into the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. The two sides disagree over who started the latest escalation. The TPLF says it was responding to a federal offensive, including drone strikes, while the government says Tigrayan forces attacked first after seizing control of airports in Tigray. Who are the TPLF? For much of Tigray's modern political history, it has been governed by the TPLF, which first emerged as an armed movement in the 1970s fighting Ethiopia's military government. It became a major force in the overthrow of the Marxist regime in 1991 and went on to become the most powerful component of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the coalition that governed the ethnically diverse country for nearly three decades. At times this proved contentious as some felt the TPLF held too much sway as Tigrayans only make up around 6% of Ethiopia's population. When Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018, he replaced the EPRDF with the Prosperity Party, significantly watering down the TPLF's influence. Relations between Addis Ababa and the TPLF rapidly deteriorated until war erupted in 2020 in what was one of the most deadly conflicts this century. The AU mediator estimated some 600,000 people died during the war, which totally cut off Tigray from the outside world and drove the region to the precipice of famine. An uneasy truce was agreed in November 2022. Why has the peace deal faltered? There are four key issues - and two concern the fertile area of western Tigray. The TPLF lost control of this territory in the early days of the war to Amhara, a region which neighbours Tigray to the west and whose fighters had fought on the side of the Ethiopian army. Many people in Amhara believe the territory of western Tigray should never have been incorporated into Tigray when regional boundaries were redrawn after the military regime was ousted in 1991. When its fighters seized control during the recent civil war, hundreds of thousands of ethnic Tigrayan people fled and are now living in homeless camps in Tigray and in the capital, Addis Ababa. The TPLF wants western Tigray back and for those displaced from the territory to return. The government says the future of the territory needs to be decided by a referendum. For the government, a major matter of contention has been disarmament. It says the TPLF has only handed over old weaponry to the AU and has been hiding its arms. The two sides have also been at loggerheads over how Tigray should be governed. Under the terms of the deal, an interim administration was appointed by Abiy. But attempts by the prime minister to influence affairs caused disputes within the TPLF itself and just before the general election in May, which was not held in Tigray because of the security situation, it restored its pre-war administration, disbanding the one set up by Abiy. This has meant that civil servants are longer being paid and other services have been seizing up, worsening economic conditions. Who is backing the TPLF? A major development has seen the TPLF, once politically isolated inside Ethiopia, gain several key allies. Earlier in September, it joined six other armed movements in forming what is called the Alliance for Survival, which includes those actively fighting the government like Amhara's Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army. Members of the new alliance have different grievances, but they do share one objective: they want to remove Abiy's government from power. So while the TPLF and Fano forces were on opposite sides during the civil war - and still disagree over the fate of western Tigray - they have temporarily put some of their differences aside. TPLF officials say they do not want to repeat the situation of 2020, when they felt surrounded and isolated. Yet analysts caution the alliance may become difficult to maintain because its members ultimately have very different interests. What is the government's position? As well as blaming the TPLF for starting the recent fighting, it has criticised the new alliance, portraying it as an attempt to destabilise the country. It has also accused Eritrea of supporting armed groups inside Ethiopia, something Asmara denies. During the recent civil war, Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopian troops but the two neighbours, which have long had a volatile relationship, have again fallen out. Their disagreement centres on the Red Sea and its ports. Ethiopia, the world's most populous landlocked nation, lost access to them when Eritrea seceded in 1993. Recently Prime Minister Abiy has been pushing for ownership of Eritrea's southern port of Assab - about 60km (37 miles) from the border - and hinted at taking it by force. What do we know about the bombing in Tigray? Reports indicate that federal forces have been using drones and other military operations against Tigrayan forces. The government's stated justification is that it is responding to attacks and trying to defend federal positions and territory. However, the circumstances surrounding individual strikes are difficult to independently verify. Residents in one recently targeted town told the BBC the drones had hit two schools, which local officials said had been used by Ethiopian troops as military bases during the war. This suggests Addis Ababa may believe they are again being used for a military purpose - by Tigrayan forces. The attacks have come amid reports that the TPLF has been forcibly recruiting young men to join its ranks. What is being done to stop the fighting? The main diplomatic effort is being led by the AU, which has called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to direct talks. It has asked former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, the AU's special Horn of Africa envoy, to engage the parties urgently. The UN has made a similar appeal, warning against a wider and more devastating conflict. The regional organisation Igad has also called for fighting to stop and dialogue to resume. The difficulty is that trust between Addis Ababa and Tigray is extremely low, while the formation of the new armed alliance has made the situation more complicated. Could the fighting spread? Yes, there is a significant risk of wider conflict inside Ethiopia. The fighting has already moved to areas over and along Tigray's borders, while the government is simultaneously dealing with armed conflicts in other regions, particularly Amhara and Oromia. The new alliance potentially connects several of these conflicts politically and militarily. There is also a fear that Eritrea could be drawn in again - this time against the government. The two aggressors in Sudan's civil war are also on opposite sides when it comes to allegiances in Tigray, potentially complicating matters. The AU has specifically urged all neighbouring countries not to take actions that could further escalate the crisis. More about
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